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The great challenges

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acute Security Horizon: now

Geopolitical instability and arms control

Interstate violence is back, while the treaties meant to contain it expire or are ignored. At the same time economies hang on a few supply routes for raw materials and chips.

What it is

Deterrence without arms control is expensive and unstable at once.

Why now

For autonomous weapons, practice is emerging faster than any rulebook.

Levers

Persistent diplomacy, verification regimes, diversification of critical supply chains, European defence capability, export controls.

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