Demographics, migration and work
The baby-boom cohorts are leaving the labour market while immigration remains politically contested and administratively slow. Together the two decide the fate of care, the trades and public services.
What it is
The shortage of skilled workers is not a business cycle but an age pyramid.
Why now
The heaviest wave of retirements falls in the next ten years — the preparation would have to be running now.
Levers
Fast immigration and recognition procedures, reliable childcare, longer working lives without coercion, automation where hands are missing, integration work at municipal level.