Ten issues that will decide the coming decades

Described, ranked and open to disagreement. Registered participants assign up to 3 priorities and contribute proposals — the ranking follows from that.

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Ranked by urgency

One person has set priorities so far.

Climate crisis and the energy transition 1 vote
Artificial intelligence and technology governance 1 vote
Democracy, disinformation and trust 1 vote
Biodiversity and ecosystems 0 votes
Inequality and social cohesion 0 votes
Health and pandemic preparedness 0 votes
Water, food and soils 0 votes
Geopolitical instability and arms control 0 votes
Demographics, migration and work 0 votes
Cybersecurity and critical infrastructure 0 votes

The ten challenges

Each entry names the core of the problem, the reason it is pressing, and the levers that can actually move it. The rating is a judgement, not a measurement — which is precisely what there is to argue about.

acute Ecology Horizon: now – 2045

Climate crisis and the energy transition

Warming is not limited by targets but by the pace at which fossil installations are replaced. The bottleneck is rarely the technology; usually it is grids, permits and capital.

What it isThe 1.5-degree goal is a budget, not a date: what is emitted today is missing later.
Why nowPower plants, heating systems and industrial plants built now will run for twenty to forty years.
LeversGrid expansion and storage, heat pumps in existing buildings, a carbon price with social compensation, faster permitting, green steel and cement.

Proposals

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structural Ecology Horizon: ongoing

Biodiversity and ecosystems

Species loss and soil degradation pull the ground out from under agriculture, the water cycle and climate protection all at once. The damage is quiet, dispersed and barely reversible.

What it isIntact soils, peatlands and waters are infrastructure, even though they appear on no balance sheet.
Why nowExtinct stays extinct; restoration takes decades, destruction a single season.
LeversRewetting peatlands, reforming farm subsidies, protecting land rather than consuming it, supply-chain rules against imported deforestation.

Proposals

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escalating Technology Horizon: now – 2035

Artificial intelligence and technology governance

Capabilities are growing faster than the institutions meant to contain them. This is not decided in one grand moment but in many small settlements being made right now.

What it isAutomation shifts work, authorship, provability and power all at the same time.
Why nowStandards, liability questions and procurement rules are taking shape now — and will echo for decades.
LeversTesting and audit procedures, clear liability, transparency about training and compute resources, public research, building competence in administration and schools.

Proposals

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escalating Society Horizon: now

Democracy, disinformation and trust

Self-government works only with a robust shared body of facts and with people willing to take on local office. Both are under pressure.

What it isManipulation has become cheap; clarification has not.
Why nowSynthetic images and voices cut the cost of forgery, while local newsrooms are disappearing.
LeversPlatform transparency and data access for research, media literacy from primary school onwards, protection for office holders, reliable election administration, support for local reporting.

Proposals

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structural Society Horizon: ongoing

Inequality and social cohesion

Housing costs, inherited educational chances and left-behind regions decide whether change is experienced as opportunity or imposition. Without the consent of those affected, every transformation fails.

What it isWhere you are born still says far too much about where you end up.
Why nowThe costs of the transition hit first those least able to sidestep them.
LeversAffordable housing, early-childhood education, real entitlements to further training, the tax and transfer system, public transport outside the cities.

Proposals

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escalating Health Horizon: now – 2040

Health and pandemic preparedness

Resistant pathogens, an ageing population and missing staff meet a system already running at its limit in normal times. Preparedness is unspectacular and for exactly that reason underfunded.

What it isAntibiotic resistance is quietly devaluing one of medicine's most effective achievements.
Why nowKnowledge from the last pandemic is decaying and structures are being dismantled before they were ever evaluated.
LeversWastewater and pathogen surveillance, vaccine platforms held in readiness, attractive care professions, research use of health data with strong protection, stockpiles and rehearsed emergency plans.

Proposals

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escalating Resources Horizon: now – 2040

Water, food and soils

Droughts, falling groundwater and eroding soils are changing agriculture faster than infrastructure and subsidy logic can follow. Water is turning from a given into a question of distribution.

What it isA landscape either holds water back or drains it away — that is a decision, not a law of nature.
Why nowConflicts over use between farming, industry and drinking water are already surfacing in individual regions.
LeversRetaining water in the landscape, efficient irrigation, adapted crop rotations and varieties, regional supply chains, fewer losses between field and plate.

Proposals

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acute Security Horizon: now

Geopolitical instability and arms control

Interstate violence is back, while the treaties meant to contain it expire or are ignored. At the same time economies hang on a few supply routes for raw materials and chips.

What it isDeterrence without arms control is expensive and unstable at once.
Why nowFor autonomous weapons, practice is emerging faster than any rulebook.
LeversPersistent diplomacy, verification regimes, diversification of critical supply chains, European defence capability, export controls.

Proposals

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structural Society Horizon: 2026 – 2040

Demographics, migration and work

The baby-boom cohorts are leaving the labour market while immigration remains politically contested and administratively slow. Together the two decide the fate of care, the trades and public services.

What it isThe shortage of skilled workers is not a business cycle but an age pyramid.
Why nowThe heaviest wave of retirements falls in the next ten years — the preparation would have to be running now.
LeversFast immigration and recognition procedures, reliable childcare, longer working lives without coercion, automation where hands are missing, integration work at municipal level.

Proposals

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acute Technology Horizon: now

Cybersecurity and critical infrastructure

Electricity, water, hospitals and local government run on systems few people wanted to attack when they were built. Attacks today are professionally organised and in part state-backed.

What it isAn outage does not hit the IT department but the emergency room and the water supply.
Why nowRansomware attacks on municipalities and hospitals have become routine, and that is precisely where staff are lacking.
LeversEnforcing minimum standards (NIS2), rehearsed emergency plans, obligations to patch promptly, clear reporting channels, permanent posts in local government instead of project funding.

Proposals

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